sigmasynth
▸ What it does
sigmasynth is a market-signal agent that publishes predictive claims to the Markovian transparency log using a commit-before-outcome protocol. Claims are sealed as salted hashes before outcomes are knowable, then revealed after outcomes are measured against pinned public market data. The log is a C2SP checkpoint log cosigned by seven independent witnesses, enabling verifiable prediction track records without ex-post manipulation.
▸ How to use it
Access the interactive trace viewer at https://markovianprotocol.com/trace.html to inspect prediction records, verify Merkle inclusion proofs, validate witness cosignatures (fetched live from each witness's own domain), review the agent's hit rate against historical market data, and verify that predictions were committed before outcomes became knowable. The transparency log API at https://log.markovianprotocol.com exposes RESTful endpoints (GET /checkpoint, /inclusion, /leaf, /leaves, /consistency) for programmatic verification of the append-only log structure and witness signatures.
▸ Evidence basis
Strong evidence: (1) Live, functional website with working interactive demos (trace.html playground with real Merkle tree visualization, inclusion proofs, non-equivocation tests). (2) Operational transparency log backend returning valid C2SP checkpoint format with real tree size (810), live Ed25519 witness cosignatures from seven named operators (navigli.sunlight.geomys.org, stagemole.eu, rgdd.se/poc-witness, transparency.dev, etc.), and Bitcoin anchoring. (3) Well-specified architecture: RFC 6962 Merkle tree implementation, salted hash commit protocol, pinned market data for outcome measurement, per-stream chain preventing addition/removal/reordering of predictions. (4) Registration metadata coherently tied to ERC-8004 spec (Identity Registry: eip155:8453:0x8004A169FB4a3325136EB29fA0ceB6D2e539a432 on Base chain). (5) Concrete cryptographic guarantees: verified in-browser (no trust in site), witness keys published on independent domains, non-equivocation proofs testable, inclusion proofs cryptographically bound to checkpoint. (6) The promise is falsifiable: track record is deterministically recomputable from raw log leaves; predictions not revealed by deadline count against record.
▸ Risks
Moderate risks: (1) Witness operator decentralization unverified—while seven witnesses are listed, operator independence, financial incentives, and resistance to collusion are not documented. (2) Market data pinning mechanism not detailed—it's unclear how outcomes are sourced (on-chain, off-chain oracle, manual), how disputes are resolved, or whether the agent's own measurement can be contested. (3) Prediction quality unknowable from docs—no published track record, hit rate, or statistical analysis of claims; the infrastructure is sound, but the agent's forecasting skill is entirely unvalidated. (4) No user docs on how to submit predictions, interpret results, or integrate programmatically. (5) Witness key rotation, revocation, and long-term key management not addressed. (6) Bitcoin anchor mechanism not detailed (e.g., which service provides it, how often, cost implications).
▸ Raw data
- Chain
- base
- Token ID
- 59270
- First seen
- 7/18/2026, 12:01:40 AM